and Ross puts it wide

10 Jun

The World Cup is back and every Tom, Dick and Henry Winter has an opinion on it.
Including me, though I don’t think I’m your average football fan, and I certainly don’t think I’m an average footy punter.
That’s why I call myself footygeek, I don’t like to follow the crowd and try and go against the mainstream opinions.
So with that in mind, here are my own special brand of World Cups selections to start the tournament off with, some are from well known websites and newspapers, others I have hunted out myself.
I’m working on a £10 per point bank system.

Outright winner

22/1 England (Paddy Power) – 5 points
Lay Argentina @ 8.8 for 2 points (liability 15.6 points)
Reading through all the previews and betting pullouts over the last few weeks, one thing has become very clear, no one wants to back England! I have to admit with skinny prices between 5/1 and 7/1 widely available, you can see why many have steered clear. However I spotted an ad the other day for new phone account holders at Paddy Power that putting £50 on would give you a 22/1 price once they added on an extra £100 free bet to it. Nice!
That price is way more appealing, and we are probably one of the 4 best teams at the finals, so why not? If you so wish you could lay off some of the profit on Betfair to a guaranteed profit but we’ll leave it for now.
Another lay I will do though is on Argentina to win. Everyone seems to forget that they only just made it into the Finals by beating Uruguay in the last game, and also have Mad Diego at the helm. It’s like having Gazza in charge of England.
Most England fans want to see them fail and maybe we’ll get the chance to despatch them. Whatever happens Messi won’t run the show, even if he is the world best player at present.

Group Betting
66/1 – Group G – Brazil/N.Korea Straight Forecast (Boyles) – 1 point
10/1 – Group H – Spain/Honduras – Straight Forecast (Boyles) – 1 point
6/4 – Greece to qualify from Group B (Blue Sq/888sport/Coral) – 1 point
9/5 – South Africa to qualify from Group A (totesport) – 1 point

Taking a chance on a couple of big priced second place teams in Group’s G & H here, with Brazil and Spain likely to win these groups. North Korea are 20/1 to qualify from this group, but the 66/1 with Brazil seems wrong, if we expect them to finish top. This may seem unlikely now but I’m sure we said that about South Korea 8 years ago.
Honduras are also an unknown quantity to most but could spring a surprise or two and sneak out the group behind Spain at a tasty 10/1.
Other surprises I fancy are Greece to get back to their old tricks and grind down teams in Group B and qualify with several 1-0 wins. The 7/4 for them to win the first game against South Korea is also tempting.
The conspiracy theorists will have you believe that FIFA like to try and keep their host nations in the competitions to get local interest as long as possible. With that in mind and Pantomime villains France also in that group, it seems a good chance that the Bafana Bafana could rise to the occasion and qualify despite their low ranking.

Fastest Goal Time
11/8 0-69 seconds (Blue Sq) – 3 points

In 64 matches, would you expect a goal inside the first minute? Yeah me too. Also in the last 3 world cups the fastest goal has been 70, 11 and 30 seconds. Selling the spread of 90 seconds is tempting but gonna go with a fixed odds of before 70 seconds instead.

Numbers of Ronaldo goals
5/2 None (William Hill) – 2 points

Portugal is a team on the decline and struggled to qualify for the Finals plus Ronaldo failed to score during that time. Despite the fact that the teams in Group G don’t look defensively strong and the new ball could work in his favour, tactics and the loss of Nani, could mean a less advanced role for Ronnie, and therefore less chances to score. 3 games and it could be goodbye to the World Cup Winker.

Elimination

4/1 Spain to be eliminated at QF stage (general)
5/1 Italy eliminated on penalties (Paddy Power)
9/2 England eliminated on penalties (Paddy Power)
4/1 Spain eliminated on penalties(Paddy Power)
11/2 Holland eliminated on penalties (Paddy Power)
16/1 Greece eliminated on penalties (Paddy Power)
Place 1 point on each selection plus first 4 penalty bets in yankee (0.5 x 11 = 5.5pts)

No one likes to go home early and even more so when you’re booted out on penalties, however some teams are better than others at the old spot kicks. I picked 5 teams I think likely to get to penos and also if they do, likely to fail. If we get 2 or more we should be in profit.
Although I think Spain will be the best team in the competition, the best team doesn’t always win. As such I’m taking a chance on them getting knocked out at the quarter finals stage, with several possibly tricky opponents waiting for them.

Highest Scoring Team

9/1 Holland (Paddy Power/totsport) – 1 point

I almost backed Holland to win the tournament being the in-form side, but you still have to question the mentality of the Dutch, and as such I plump for this bet instead. They should run riot in the Group Stages and make the quarters at least.

England Specials
4/6 Heskey to not score in the World Cup (888 sport) – 5 points
12/1 Rooney to spend most minutes on pitch (W.Hills) – 1 point e/w

Being a Leicester fan I can’t help but have a soft spot for Emile but when it comes to scoring, banjo and cows arse comes to mind. As such the 4/6 on offer for him not to score at South Africa seems a bargain.
Also taking a chance on Rooney playing more minutes than the bookies imagine after he played 90 minutes in both Mexico and Japan friendlies. You would normally go with a keeper in this market but with no clear favourite between the posts Rooney looks good. Barring injury or a sending off, Fabio will want to keep his star man on as long as possible. The e/w profit provides a little safety net if he one of the top 3.

And finally……

11/5 Number of own goals 5 or more (Victor Chandler) – 1 point

A bit of a fun bet to keep me interested in each game. With the amount of og’s flying in recently in the warm ups, it seems a reasonable bet. Especially when Japan play!

Right that’s it for now. I’m off to check the odds on Gazza as next England boss and Mandela to miss a penalty.

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